Back-to-School Marketing 2023: How Brands Break Through Macro Headwinds?

As back-to-school marketing heats up, some brands are pulling out all the stops to stand out, even drawing inspiration from styles decades old. For American Eagle, that means doubling down on its denim-led campaign with a 90s-inspired clothing line influenced by fashion icons of yesteryear—a move designed to tap into Gen Z's interest in retro trends.

"I think Gen Z loves looking back," said Craig Brommers, chief marketing officer of American Eagle. "Some of their favorite shows are from the '90s and early 2000s, and some of their style inspiration comes from those eras."

The retailer launched its omnichannel back-to-school campaign in late July, announcing a partnership with Maddie and Kenzie Ziegler. The Gen Z sisters, known for their roles on the hit reality show "Dance Moms," co-created a custom clothing line inspired by icons like Drew Barrymore, Kate Moss, and Cindy Crawford. This carefully orchestrated move may signal that marketers are trying to boost competitiveness during a sales season beset by macro headwinds, though Brommers sees reasons for optimism, citing recent data on easing inflation.

"We may be facing a volatile external environment," Brommers said. "But I think the customer is actually feeling more optimistic now than they were three or six months ago."

Still, forecasts for consumer spending this season paint a bleak picture. Deloitte projects that spending by households with children in kindergarten through 12th grade will decline 10% year over year, totaling $597 per child, with overall season spending expected to reach $31.2 billion. Marketing around value will be crucial for brands looking to win a larger share of consumers' limited budgets.

"This is the first time in a decade we've seen this kind of decline," said Lupine Skelly, Deloitte's leader of retail, wholesale, and distribution research. "It really speaks to the fact that after 18 months of inflation, parents have had to prioritize where their money goes, whether it's for summer vacations or replenishing savings."

Expected spending slowdown

Accompanying the reduced back-to-school budget is a leaner shopping list. According to Deloitte, 34% of parents say they plan to delay purchasing non-essential school supplies this year. Tech products and clothing are expected to take the biggest hits, with declines of 13% and 14% year over year, respectively. This drop may mark a return to normalcy for these categories, which experienced sales surges in recent years due to pandemic-related adjustments and the return to in-person learning.

"Last year there was a very strong replacement cycle, and this year, parents might think, 'What can we make do with for the first few months?' and then just buy the essentials," Skelly said.

Correspondingly, spending on school supplies this back-to-school season is expected to jump 20% year over year, even though prices for such items have risen 23.7% over the past two years, according to data cited in the Deloitte report. Notably, nearly six in ten (57%) parents say they are willing to splurge on certain items for better quality or to treat their kids—with clothing (57%) and tech (56%) being the two most likely categories—and some marketers, including Old Navy, seem to have tried to capitalize on this finding.

"I think this speaks to the nostalgia and family traditions that come with back-to-school," Skelly said. "This idea of treating your child, allowing them to express themselves or fit in with peers, really shows up in the data."

According to Aruna Natarajan, chief client officer at GroupM's EssenceMediacom, this year's spending outlook is expected to have several key implications for advertisers. Among them, she anticipates advertisers will match consumer sentiment with softer, more targeted media investments this season.

"Advertisers are pulling back on spending this season and must prioritize which products to support," Natarajan said in an email comment.

Natarajan added that among other impacts, campaign messaging will include more mentions of discounts and promotions. The reduction in consumer spending during this period will also have a "ripple effect," she said, prompting advertisers to introduce seasonal items for holidays like Halloween and Thanksgiving earlier to maintain sales momentum.

Doubling down on value propositions

To resonate with price-sensitive parents, Amazon this year revived its "spend less" messaging from last year for its back-to-school campaign, echoing the year-over-year similarities in consumer behavior amid persistent macro headwinds. The campaign launched in July and, according to Jo Shoesmith, Amazon's global executive creative director, was designed to be lighthearted and humorous while directly addressing the season's contradictory realities.

"Traditional back-to-school ads show smiling kids, bright colors, and upbeat music, but they miss what parents are really thinking: raising kids can be expensive, and the annual school shopping is a stark reminder of that," Shoesmith said in an email comment.

At the heart of the campaign is a humorous spot featuring actor Randall Park, who presents the idea of spending less on back-to-school shopping as a novel concept, only to be supported by some financially savvy kids, one of whom notes that spending less is "financially advantageous." The internally developed creative is running throughout the summer across TV, online video, digital, and social channels, promoting Amazon's many deals and its online back-to-school shopping guide.

Shoesmith said the tone of Amazon's back-to-school campaign this year is largely similar to the 2022 campaign, a deliberate choice based on positive consumer feedback from last year, with consumers saying the messaging helped ease the season's stress. She also noted that staying true to Amazon's core values was crucial in crafting the ad.

"Authenticity is very important because consumers are savvy, and they will tune out ads or messages that don't feel relevant or genuine to them," Shoesmith said.

Embracing the back-to-school season with a lighthearted approach has been a focus for several retailers this season. For example, Gap partnered with "Recess Therapy" in July—the web series known for candid interviews with kids, including the now-classic "Corn Kid"—to ask witty children about their thoughts on the first day of school. Similarly, Carter's brand OshKosh B'gosh released a cheerful spot, "Find Your Back To School Beat," featuring multiple kids showing off dance moves in back-to-school outfits.

As consumers focus on cutting costs, other previously prioritized values have been set aside. Notably, Deloitte found that consumer interest in purchasing sustainable goods fell to 35% this year, down from 50% last year. In the 2022 sales season, sustainability-focused parents were expected to spend 22% more than the average.

"It's a bit like when times get tough, after 18 months of inflation, parents suddenly say, 'Yeah, I'm going to protect my wallet, not the planet,'" Skelly said.

In the hunt for the best deals, consumers continue to show that shopping early is the way to go. According to Deloitte, 59% of budgets are expected to be spent by the end of July, up from 53% in 2022. Parents will also favor mass merchants (80%) and online retailers (60%), indicating their need for convenience.

Winning over Gen Z

For American Eagle, making the most of the back-to-school season means marketing directly to its target audience of Gen Z, a strategy that takes note of the group's ability to make independent choices, Brommers said. He added that, while a lower priority, the retailer also employs some offline marketing efforts aimed at "mom and dad."

"We've always found that if you capture the mind of Gen Z, you have the ability to capture the wallets of their mostly Gen X and Gen Y parents," Brommers said.

To reach the younger demographic, the partnership with the Ziegler sisters aims to tap into Gen Z's "multifaceted hustle," Brommers said, referring to the stars' multiple career pursuits since "Dance Moms." The duo will promote their versatile clothing line on social media, particularly by posting selfie content to convey authenticity.

"What's fun about Threads is that we're taking a leap of faith—I'm not sitting here approving anything."

— Craig Brommers, American Eagle CMO

American Eagle will also lean heavily on social media to promote its larger back-to-school campaign, relying on Gen Z favorites like TikTok and Instagram while working with hundreds of content creators. The brand is also testing Meta's Twitter rival Threads, which it quickly adopted shortly after the platform launched in July. Threads rapidly amassed over 100 million users after its debut, positioning it as a consideration for social-savvy brands like American Eagle.

"What's fun about Threads is that we're taking a leap of faith—I'm not sitting here approving anything," Brommers said. "The (social) team is really engaged, and so far, we seem to be getting rewarded for that experimentation and risk-taking."

Beyond social media, American Eagle also plans its largest out-of-home advertising push since the pandemic for the back-to-school season, with activations scheduled for August and September, including digital billboards across New York City and a 3D billboard in Times Square, the executive continued. The move stems from an observation that, despite being digitally driven, Gen Z still wants to connect with the physical world, Brommers said, especially amid ongoing discussions around mental health.

Overall, the retailer's back-to-school marketing strategy this year is about extending the brand into the various ways Gen Z wants to express itself, Brommers said, adding that this group doesn't want to be put in a box. With a diversified strategy and a shopping season he defines as "optimistic," Brommers is confident American Eagle has gotten a head start.

"Our opportunity is to connect with this customer in a very authentic way, do things that only AE can do, be a little disruptive in the market, and offer products that can adapt to the various occasions Gen Z dresses for," Brommers said. "As we head into the core of back-to-school shopping in August and September, we feel well-positioned for success."